Quote:
Originally Posted by Oil Stain
I don't think this point can be emphasized enough. Goaltending has such an outsized effect on results. No skater can consistently have such a massive impact on winning hockey games as a goalie.
When you look at the numbers we have publicly available, the 21/22 and 22/23 Flames were pretty consistent in their defensive metrics from year to year. The difference was that in 22, Markstrom stopped everything and in 23 he stopped nothing. Lots of fans talked about how Sutter had changed the system, and the Flames were playing worse defensively. The numbers say they were about the same though.
I think subconsciously fans will downgrade or attach less meaning to scoring chances that don't score. If the Preds get a 5 bell scoring chance and it is saved, everyone goes "nice" and moves on to something else. If the puck is in the back of the net, everyone is going to seek out the reason for the goal and assign blame on who they think is culpable.
So in both cases the scoring chance could have been equal, but the perception of the play is radically changed by whether the goalie stops the puck or not. That boils down to human nature. Only way to get around that is by breaking down and documenting every scoring chance. Nobody does that except professionals employed by NHL teams because its a full time job. The media and fans just break down the scoring chances that resulted in goals and then craft a narrative using an incomplete picture.
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I think that this is an rational and reasonable take.
It does strike me as interesting that Huska has indicated he wanted to change both the the defensive system and offensive system from Sutter's traditional approach. In changing defensively from man-on-man to more of a zone defence, they are hoping to avoid the situation where significant scoring chances are given up if a person gets beat. Last year the Flames can largely dictate the pace of play, but they were liable for the occasional breakdown that results in a huge chance in the back of the net. To be clear Markstrom was terrible last year, for sure. However, the Flames also gave up lots of very high danger chances when they broke down. When a man got beat, it was breakaways or two on ones the other way.
I also think that the Flames agree with a lot of people around here that the strategy of simply throwing the puck on net from anywhere was not going to generate a lot of offence.