Quote:
Originally Posted by yourbestfriend
While I roughly agree with you on the ~$8.5M figure in principal, he's a lot more than a 60pt center and the discussion is also a lot more nuanced than just him as a player.
During his tenure with the Flames, on a prorated and normalized basis, he's a 34G 72PT center, while also being a Selke finalist. $1M/10pts seems like the standard, so your at ~$7.5M. Add in small market premium, cap increase protection and player intangibles (goal scoring and defensive ability) and your probably looking at a ~$9M AAV.
Cap management is extremely important, every penny counts, however say we give him $10M, if he continues to put up 70-80pts for the duration of his contract (highly likely), are we going to be super worried about overpaying our #1C by ~$1.5M, or 1.8% on a $82.5M cap?
Overpaying players is really only an issue when you overpay the wrong players. If you overpay your #1C, D or G by $1M, I really don't think it's the end of the world. Teams get in trouble overpaying for bottom 6 players.
The other question you have to ask yourself is, who do we replace Lindholm with if we either trade him or he walks? Ownership wants a team challenging for the playoffs and Lindholm-Kadri-Backlund is a helluva lot better than Kadri-Backlund-xxx. Then at the end of the season, your back at square one either over paying for a UFA who you don't know as well or trading futures for one.
IMO, $9.25M +- 250k would be a good compromise for what he brings.
Edit: I also want to add in that the last time this happened it was with Gaudreau, should be fresh in Conroy's mind. Contract year, the player is gonna do everything in his power to have a career year. The sooner this gets done, the better. I would wager that if this spills into the regular season, the chances of signing go exponentially down.
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A lot of people have been using the $100k per point model for years now. It has worked but the cap has been fairly flat for a while. As the cap goes up, you need to adjust that. 2018/19 cap was $79.5 mil and it only gone up $4 mil in 5 seasons. The model still has worked for the last 5 years, cap goes up it needs to be adjusted. For this contract I would use $110K or even $120K. He's worth $8.5 mil per year and it's ridiculous that anyone would argue this. The problem is, I'm certain the Flames would sign that deal. Lindholm probaby wants more.
I'm personally not a fan of that model too. Some players do much more than score.