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I mean, I haven't reviewed the math but assuming it's as stated (contributions by Albertans, less withdrawals by Albertans brought to present value by the returns on the CPP fund) then if the country split the plan up on that basis it would work out to exactly 100% of assets.
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That would be logical, but no, it doesn't. According to Trevor Tombe by the same math Alberta and Ontario would be >100% of assets.
He pegs a more realistic figure at 20-25% which honestly, forget the math, that passes the smell test.
And if you use that instead, we have less assets and have to contribute more so the "win" for Alberta is significantly less.
So our "Alberta Pension Plan" contributions would likely wind up being ~1% lower than CPP for the same benefit [works out to about $34/month for someone earning CPP max], but the APP would be significantly riskier.
[all from Trevor Tombe but Twitter is stupid nowadays so I can't embed at the moment..]