Another really valuable video from Perun, estimating how the Russian production of new materiel is holding up.
Short version: in tanks, artillery and airframes, it isn't. They're digging deeper and deeper into stockpiles, and it isn't sustainable.
In drones it's not just holding up, they're likely going to outpace Ukraine.significantly over time. The West hasn't really fully woken up to consumption rates and usefulness of drones in this war.
Key issue here is will the Wests appetite for supporting Ukraine hold. Next year is of materiel deliveries is likely going to be key. If they can give Ukraine enough to work with, it's completely possible to deplete Russian equipment too fast for them to replace, eventually leading to breakdowns and breakthroughs, but the numbers really, really matter here.
If the amount If support isn't enough, then the Russian loss rates will be sustainable for Russia, and that means an endless wars.
These are the times that require deciviness and putting our money where our mouths are. It's a very winnable war, but a bigger effort sooner rather than later is needed.
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