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Originally Posted by Oil Stain
Weird examples. Nurse in 2018 would have been $5-5.5 million with 3 years left as of today, and Jones did sign a fairly big contract coming out of his entry level deal $5.4 over 6 years. If they went $6 million over 8 he'd be in the last year of his deal. Both would be looking good.
Tyler Myers is a good example of a guy that looked like he was going to be a perennial 40 point D-man who fell off after signing a big second contract. Even still the Sabres were able to get value for him in trade. His big contract to the Canucks in his late 20s is the most regrettable deal there.
The third contract or signing a guy long term at 27+ seems to be by far the more risky route when it comes to contracts.
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They aren’t weird examples. The point is that neither Jones nor Nurse are worth the contracts they’re on right now, and having signed those same contracts 5+ years earlier would not have made a difference as at no point have they ever been worth these contracts.
So, signing a young guy to a big dollar, max term contract when he isn’t yet worth what you signed him isn’t any less risky. Like Nurse and Jones, he might never be.