It's not even really a matter of shifts in voter preferences, it's that the vast majority of voters don't have a clue what their preference is, beyond "that Trudeau guy is still PM and things in this country don't seem to be going well". They aren't engaged. When they become engaged, to the extent they do, it will be a few months from an election, at which point they'll make an actual decision about who to vote for.
So, yes, they matter, as a barometer of how pissed off everyone is at the current ruling party at this particular moment. The answer is "quite". I bet if you polled everyone eligible to vote and showed them a picture of Pierre Poilievre and asked "who is this guy", as many as half would have no idea.
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