Quote:
Originally Posted by Fuzz
Most of these polls are 1000-2000 people, so that's, what 5 people per riding? I don't think you can project these national polls out to indivdual riding or regions with any useful accuracy. These are good for judging a general national level of support for each party. Reading anything into them, particularly in the doldrums of summer with no election in sight and 3 largely unpopular leaders doesn't seem very useful.
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I agree on your point in value in local areas where the numbers would be too low of a sample to get a local idea from one poll, but these get build over time, not from a single poll.
To say that poll numbers in the summer don't matter...the Liberals called an election in the middle of a pandemic in the summer to bank on high approval numbers.
You could be certain that if the Liberals were polling high this summer, we would likely have an earlier elections to bank on the possibility of a Liberal majority. Polls do matter, summer or no summer.
Polls are the reason we had a hastily planned cabinet shuffle earlier this month. Polls are also why we may see an early Trudeau exit to salvage the next election and why Liberals are suddenly backtracking on issues like immigration they previously doubled down on. I'm a pretty big critic of polling accuracy in general due to how they poll can lead to skewed data but they have their merits.
Poilievre's new image is likely to do with how poorly he polls with women.
https://www.nationalobserver.com/202...n-battle-sexes
To outright ignore polls is not a good idea.