Quote:
Originally Posted by photon
Public opinion on the economy I would imagine is a trailing indicator, so assuming things keep progressing like they are now and a recession is avoided then one would think that the negative opinion on the economy for Biden would soften which could be a factor too.
A lot could change in a year.
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This is true. Also, it can be largely expected Democrats will win the popular vote but that doesn't mean a whole lot.
Then there's the curveball where some states might not allow Trump to run due to his indictments. It would be interesting if he was not on the ballot in states like Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania etc. Not sure how likely that is.