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Originally Posted by photon
For sure. And as you say it's down to voters in certain states, 2020 was only won by 44,000 votes across the 3 closest swing states.
I mean it's not like Trump has done anything to attract new voters, the abortion stuff could still have a large impact, and other polls suggest independents are not going to vote for Trump if he's convicted.. But there's lots of things that have been done to hurt the ability to vote in the interim, public opinion on the economy.. there's no reason to think Biden will win easily and every reason to think that Trump will have a very real chance once again.
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The Georgia case is going to be interesting to follow. People have loyalty to their states, and if it plays out like Trump was attacking Georgia, or he comes across that way in the trial, it makes Georgia pretty much impossible for him.
The economy is very complicated and will probably favor Trump somewhat. I see dumb, popular memes all the time about gas prices being $1.50 when Trump left office compared to the almost $4 they are now. If enough people believe that it was a good thing that gas was $1.50 in Nov of 2020 due to Trump's good work, then there isn't much hope of an electorate making an informed vote.