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Originally Posted by opendoor
I don't know, to me it looks more like the biggest effect is that Poilievre has been successful at bringing the PPC crazies back into the Conservative fold. The last election was:
Conservatives: 34.3%
PPC: 4.9%
Total: 39.2%
Now the 338 polling aggregate is showing:
Conservatives: 37%
PPC: 2%
Total: 39%
Whereas the Liberal + NDP numbers are basically identical to the last election (49% in the polling aggregate vs. 50.4% in the election). There has been a very slight movement towards the Greens (5% in the polling vs. 2.3% in the election), but that normally doesn't actually materialize on election day so I'd expect the Liberals/NDP to come in right around last election's vote share based on current polling.
To be honest, it's a pretty good strategy by the Conservatives, even if it's not good for the country. It probably explains Poilievre's flirting with conspiracy theory weirdos and ranting about the WEF and digital ID.
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It may look that way on the surface, but reality is it seems the Liberals are losing ground to the Conservatives with millennial and Gen Z voters. They are concerned about affordability, amongst other things.
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This renewed messaging targeted at younger voters also follows recent polling by Abacus Data, which found the Liberals were trailing the Conservatives by 11 points among millennials (those born between 1980 and 1996), and among Gen Z voters (those born between 1997 and 2005) Trudeau's party is four points behind Poilievre's Conservative Party.
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https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/trud...lans-1.6530828
I think people are fed up with rising housing costs, food costs, and general cost of living.