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Originally Posted by Firebot
Biden / the US telling US citizens to leave Belarus immediately and so strongly is an extremely worrying announcement. US intelligence has been extremely solid when it comes to imminent crisis, including the invasion of Ukraine.
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I think a big part of it is just that Latvia and Lithuania have closed many border crossings and are likely to close many more shortly. This really limits the ability for Americans to get out on short notice if they need to.
Tensions are higher with Belarus though, that is true. I don't think a conflict is imminent, but Poland has already caught several Russians in Poland who were trying to recruit for Wagner, so you know they are already infiltrating. A mishap or false-flag attack isn't out of the question, and could lead to drastic escalation. I do get the sense that Poland is getting pretty antsy.