Quote:
Originally Posted by Jay Random
Fans have this absurd idea that in the playoffs, the best teams always win.
Ask the Tampa Bay Lightning how they feel about that one:
2015 - Lost Cup finals.
2016 - Lost conference finals.
2017 - Missed playoffs. Oops.
2018 - Lost conference finals. Now we're back in business.
2019 - Swept in the first round. Ouch!
2020 - Won Stanley Cup. At last!
2021 - Won Stanley Cup. OK, we're talking dynasty here.
2022 - Lost Cup finals. Well, maybe not quite dynasty, but—
2023 - Lost in the first round to a team that hadn't won a playoff series in 19 years. Oof!
There is a lot of randomness in individual hockey games, and a best-of-seven series isn't enough to average it out. The worst team in the playoffs is still above average in the league, and I read some years ago (sorry, didn't save a link) that in hockey, such a team has about a 15-percent chance of beating a top seed in a best-of-seven series.
You won't win four rounds that way (though several Cinderellas have won three), but you can easily see a top team waste a great season with a fluke first-round loss. It happened to Tampa in 2019, to Boston this year, and it came within a skate blade of happening to the Flames back in '89.
If you make it to the playoffs, you're never ‘a long, long way off from doing anything’. At worst, you've got that shot at being the David who beats that year's Goliath.
|
Maybe I'm misunderstanding but your takeaway from Tampa's history is that playoffs are random and any team that gets in can win it??
My takeaway from Tampa's history is very different. I agree that being the favorite doesn't guarantee a cup. But you need to be a consistent high-end contender over half a decade or so.
Like look at the last 10 years of cup winners. All consistent contenders. They made playoffs in multiple years and had some deep runs.