[Jay Random]

Fans have this absurd idea that in the playoffs, the best teams always win.

Ask the Tampa Bay Lightning how they feel about that one:

2015 - Lost Cup finals.
2016 - Lost conference finals.
2017 - Missed playoffs. Oops.
2018 - Lost conference finals. Now we're back in business.
2019 - Swept in the first round. Ouch!
2020 - Won Stanley Cup. At last!
2021 - Won Stanley Cup. OK, we're talking dynasty here.
2022 - Lost Cup finals. Well, maybe not quite dynasty, but—
2023 - Lost in the first round to a team that hadn't won a playoff series in 19 years. Oof!

There is a lot of randomness in individual hockey games, and a best-of-seven series isn't enough to average it out. The worst team in the playoffs is still above average in the league, and I read some years ago (sorry, didn't save a link) that in hockey, such a team has about a 15-percent chance of beating a top seed in a best-of-seven series.

You won't win four rounds that way (though several Cinderellas have won three), but you can easily see a top team waste a great season with a fluke first-round loss. It happened to Tampa in 2019, to Boston this year, and it came within a skate blade of happening to the Flames back in '89.

If you make it to the playoffs, you're never ‘a long, long way off from doing anything’. At worst, you've got that shot at being the David who beats that year's Goliath.