Assuming the Liberals fail to dump Trudeau before the next election (and a ton can happen—I have to think the knives are out for him a little bit), the next election is going to be the classic “choice vs referendum” election.
Polievre wants it to be a referendum on Trudeau. If he succeeds, he probably wins. Trudeau is not popular, and most people of every political stripe agree it’s time for him to go.
Trudeau wants it to be a “choice” between him and Poilievre. If he succeeds, he probably wins another slim minority. Poilievre is in his own many ways unpalatable to centrist voters and to the extent he can be portrayed as scary and ultra-right we will probably see some of those voters “come home” and hold their noses to vote Liberal one more time.
In all honesty, I have no idea which scenario is worse for Canada. Neither seems very good. Nor do I have a better option to suggest…. :/.
I do think that when it comes to the “core” bread and butter issues (inflation, the economy, housing, etc.) it probably doesn’t matter which nincompoop gets elected. Neither is equipped to deal with it and to a certain degree the federal government can’t even deal with it because it just has the wrong tools. That won’t stop the election from being about those issues though.
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