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Originally Posted by Itse
I agree that the war is far from won. While I'm generally not as pessimistic about western will to support Ukraine, the stability of the US political system is questionable, and if the US collapses into political chaos or if the fascists come back to power, things could get ugly really fast.
There's also risk of escalation. As the war has moved into a mostly attritional phase, both sides are now trying to change the conditions around the war as much they're trying to move battle lines. Fights about trade and support could heat up and create new conflicts. A lot can happen. Right now the long term picture looks better for Ukraine, but that can change, and there might be problems at the front we don't hear about.
But yeah, I also agree that the West military-industrial complex should be really put into a high hear and Ukraine should be supported more now, with better system and just more of them.
If the West truly committed to this properly for like a year, their combined economic and industrial might would just completely overshadow whatever resources Russia could come up with, and this war woule be more winnable in the battlefield.
Juat as a propaganda move, the West should posture much harder about their will to support Ukraine. Make things look impossible for Russia. If Russia believed that western support will hold, they would be much more likely to give up and go home.
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I think Russia has already lost, but not sure Ukraine could win, either.
Russia lost because the NATO alliance is even stronger and militaries are increasing their budgets. In a country with severe demographics challenges already they've nuked their their skilled young people demographics even more. The future is sealed now.
Having said that, Ukrainian victory is difficult to see without a Russian political collapse. Russian defences are competently constructed and motivation for defending is simply "not dying" which is still a motivation for conscripts who don't want to be there