Quote:
Originally Posted by Fighting Banana Slug
Obviously you can make the case for others, but the Bader model seems a bit out of whack if Hutson has a 74% chance to be a star and 81% chance to be a player. The star number seems ridiculously high. To me Bedard should be about 80%. There are no guarantees.
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Well 74% isn’t a guarantee.
Hutson is interesting because he had an insane freshman season in college as a defenseman scoring 48 points in 39 games. He produced more from the backend then Gaudreau did as a forward.
That kind of production is basically unheard for a defenseman hence why his star probability went from 53% to 74% from his draft year until now.
Bedard is sitting at 99%. For comparison sake:
Mackinnon: 54%
McDavid 99%
Crosby: 99%
Yakupov: 61%
Lafreniere: 61%
Hughes: 99%