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Old 08-03-2023, 11:54 AM   #152
bax
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Originally Posted by Major Major View Post
I don't think Roni was a size play...

Also with Bader, is there any evidence that his model actually works? Does he have a 2018 draft list we could peruse? His methods have always left me wanting more and his comps are so varied that I'm always wondering if this is just a labor intensive tribute to randomness.

He doesn’t have a list, but I pay for his subscription service so I can go back and look at any specific players you would be curious about?

Just checking in on some star level players that went later in the draft. Here is the percentages he had for them becoming stars during their draft year:

Point - 48%
Kucherov - 70%
Gaudreau - 21%
Caufield - 60%

His model isn’t perfect. It basically just draws on historical data and outcomes then compares that to what the player produced at the same age. It does show that certain types of players continue to get overlooked though.
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