Quote:
Originally Posted by Firebot
338Canada just released their projections from aggregate polling data, and the numbers are starting to project an outside chance of CPC majority, the first time in a very long time, with Liberals dropping all the way down to 10% minority as best outcome.
https://338canada.com/federal.htm
338Canada Odds of outcome
51%▲
CPC min.
38%▲
CPC maj.
10%▼
LPC min.
1%
Tie
Odds of outcome | July 30, 2023
These numbers likely explain the Liberals panic shuffle earlier in the week, hoping that shuffling the wheel around would get Canadians to forget the damage being done by recent Liberal policies that have proved to be disastrous to Canadians.
By these numbers, it is very clear that swing voters have started swinging to the CPC from the Liberal party. It's also clear that the NDP is not picking up these votes. CPC is also being aided by the loss of momentum that PPC had during covid lockdowns. Should the PPC fold before an election, it's likely enough for the CPC to win a majority.
These numbers also show that Singh's NDP-Liberal coalition strategy is backfiring badly on the NDP, with projections seeing them lose even more seats than Singh's abysmal 2021 result. NDP needs a change in strategy fast as the next election could push them back decades in relevancy. No one will think about Singh and his role in getting us a dental plan policy when Canadians can no longer afford rent or their mortgage.
That said CPC polled somewhat similar when the 2021 elections were announced (albeit without such a high majority chance). It remains to be seen if Canadians disenfranchised by the Liberals actually vote CPC |
Yeah, it’s still pretty early. But the Abacus numbers at least support the idea of a short-term surge toward the CPC.
My prognostication (based on nothing in particular): This will turn out to be very much like the Alberta election we all just lived through in that it will turn on whether voters view this as a choice vs a referendum. If the CPC can persuade voters that the election is a referendum on the Trudeau government, the Liberals will lose. If Atlantic Canada is really tied, as Abacus suggests, CPC could win a majority.
The Liberals, on the other hand, need to cast this as a “choice” election, and (much like Danielle Smith was able to do) try to portray the CPC as an unpalatable choice vis a vis the median voter’s values. If they can do that they stand a chance of hanging on to a slim majority, but… that’s far from certain. I’m also guessing “Trudeau fatigue” creates some pretty strong headwinds for the incumbents.