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Originally Posted by blankall
There are lots of non money supply related inflation pressures. Oil prices. War in Ukraine. Housing shortage. Supply chain issues. A lot of industries are still suffering from material shortages.
The labor shortage in China is going to change the way the world gets materials. With China's population shrinking and the cost of labor going up there, that will mean less goods coming out of China and prices going up across the board.
https://www.businessinsider.com/chin...economy-2023-2
The "end of globalization" is going to drive up costs. We're all going to have to get used to having less stuff for a while. |
None of those things have anywhere near the impact of adding almost 40% to the money supply almost overnight like the US did (or 30% like Canada did), which is primarily what's driving current inflation as that money is still being absorbed. The price of oil went up 10x over a 10-year period in the '90s and '00s, but inflation never really got out of control then. And input costs for businesses have been dropping steadily for a year, so I don't really see that as a driver, at least near term.
Sure there will be other inflationary pressures, but they tend to largely even themselves out. So whatever cost increases come from deglobalization will probably be mostly offset by productivity increases through more automation, like they always are.