I see absolutely no way Trump loses the Republican nomination unless he's dead or close to it. The Republican party doesn't really properly exist at the national level anymore: it's the Trump party now.
I think the Republicans are capable of getting 51% of the vote with Trump as their candidate, and probably top out at 45% without him. Tons of Republican voters are really Trump voters - he goes, and they just won't bother voting at all. With voter demographic changes working against them, Trump is probably their last, best, and only shot at power for the next 3 elections (though they only need him to win the next one, after which they may not need to worry about future ones anyway).
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