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Originally Posted by Table 5
Yeah, new forms of energy don't really replace old forms of energy....they just get added to the overall pile as society advances and energy demand grows. Eg, despite us in the west thinking it's outdated, globally we actually use more coal today then we did a hundred years ago (even if it's % in the overall mix is down).
New tech will not replace coal or oil or gas... it will just be added to it. There are still many parts of the world where people are looking to better their lives who will be taking the next step on the energy consumption ladder, and they will use whatever is most accessible and affordable to them. China is an energy monster and will use anything and everything...despite them having a hand in every new tech pie out there, in 2022 alone, China permitted about 2 new coal plants per week. India is probably about 20 years behind in terms of growth, and is about to surpass China in population. Africa is probably another 20 years behind them and has a lot to do to catch up.
Global energy demand is going nowhere but up over the next few decades...and it will not be an "either/or" scenario...it will be "all of the above". |
It is dependent on asset depreciation. Yes, the pie grows but you can see with your own chart that less favorable energy sources do decline in growth and stabilize as a proportion of the energy production bucket. But not included is the depreciation timeline on these power producing assets; especially with recent incentive regimes in the west, the next generation of power producing assets that replace coal/ng generators as those assets reach their lifespan are likely going to be nuclear or another renewable source.
The ultimate LNG Market imo depends on society's willingness to accept CCUS technology. Do we believe that this tech is as effective as billed at reducing carbon intensity at point source? Or is the leakage value much higher than anticipated, resulting in less abatement than hoped for in the near term?
If we can get society to view NG with CCUS produced energy as a carbon neutral or ultra low carbon intensity source, we will have our market. But if we fail then we will see NG become as unpopular as coal.