Quote:
Originally Posted by Ducay
Forecast highs and low not being met, nor current temp or any other metric since yesterday (even the forecast highs/lows from yesterday)
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29/14 forecast on consecutive days is the trigger and it was met based on what I'm looking here but maybe not civilian sites or public apps.
Looking at the YYC data here for yesterday I see the EC forecast is 28.5/13.5. Recorded temp at both 3 pm and 4 pm was 28.7° Lowest temp recorded at YYC for the day was 13.6°. So yesterday hit the forecast.
Today was forecast 29.0/14.2. So that's 2 consecutive days of 29/14 being forecast which correctly triggers the warning.
Today we only hit 26.4. EC missed by 3 degrees, as forecasts often do, but it doesn't matter because heat warnings are based on the forecast.
If the argument is that 29/14 is too low a trigger for the city of Calgary, I'd mostly agree with that. If the argument is that EC often misses their forecast, I'd also agree with that because it's clearly true. But the claim that the trigger was not met is incorrect. To fix this issue you have 2 options... wait until the actual temperature hits 29° to issue a warning which defeats the purpose of pre-emptively warning people, or we can increase the forecast triggers to buffer the potential of the EC forecast undershooting by 3 degrees. Neither seem particularly useful, and those at elevated risk for heat-related ailments taking minor precautions for heat at even 26° seems to be fine by me.