Quote:
Originally Posted by edslunch
I sincerely love the optimism this time of year. The development camp thread is always a welcome change from some of gloomy discussion through the rest of the year. So many prospects have 'taken a step', 'come out of nowhere', or 'have a chance'.
Of course almost all of them won't make it, but wouldn't it be a nice gift from the hockey gods if like half a dozen of these guys broke out? A once in a franchise convergence of drafting luck that changes the course of the franchise forever.
A guy can dream...
|
Actually, looking at it a different way.... The average NHL career is apparently 4.5 seasons. Divide 23 positions by 4.5 comes out to just over 5 new to the league players per team every year on average, at least for a cup of coffee. If we say for simplicity that players enter the league at D+3 years on average, then on average 5 of the current D+3 Flames prospects would skate at least one NHL game this season. Next year 5 of the current D+2 prospects would, etc. - meaning that on average 20 of the guys currently at camp (or in Belarus) will make a regular season NHL appearance.
That doesn't sound so bad after all, ignoring that my assumptions have been pulled from a dank place and the math here is done in crayon.
I'm sure we could go back to previous prospect lists and tally up how many played. Probably far fewer than average because of the Flames' previous approach to development.