Quote:
Originally Posted by Macindoc
It’s possible that this analysis is mistaking correlation for causation. It is likely that 95% of all teams in the league have one or two top five picks. Have you done the same analysis for the 17th or last ranked teams for each of those years to see how they compare?
|
The correlation is stars/elite players win you championships. Usually, you find them at the top of the draft.
If you’re not willing to suffer a rebuild, when a player like Eichel comes available, pay what it costs to get him, even if it’s considered an overpayment. If it cost you Tkachuk, Mangiapane and two 1sts, pay it, because you’re not getting that player any other way. Then you might have been able to sell Gaudreau on Eichel, he and Lindholm + Andersson as a core.
It doesn’t mean they’re everything, but it’s very hard to win without top-5 picks performing at a high level.
Erik Johnson is relevant because he represents a time when the Blues bottomed out.
Same with Seguin/Kessel.
Everyone had a sustained low point, nobody got to avoid it.
Calgary actually had more success of the back of this last rebuild than they’d had in 30 years - two division titles, a regular season conference championship, made it out of the first round twice in the eight years Gaudreau was here. It isn’t the 04 run, but it’s collectively more in less time than they ever managed with Iggy and Kipper.
Edmonton is proof it isn’t everything, but that’s a bigger black mark on Edmonton as an organization than it is the idea that having the two best players in the world isn’t the best recipe for success.