One thing to remember is that second contracts have become more expensive too and are not the same bargains they once were. If the player hits you're pretty much 8 years at a high salary. If not it's a series of shorter term deals with the potential to need future raises when the player does. So a pending RFA for UFA isn't the same future cost difference it once was. But it is a different risk dynamic.
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"Some guys like old balls"
Patriots QB Tom Brady
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