You had several UCP voters explain their vote in the election thread and why they chose UCP over NDP. The 2019 election has shown that when there are angry voters, at least on the UCP side they will come out and vote.
No matter how you slice it, despite the pandemic response and people 'enraged' at the UCP, voter turnout went down by 5%. Smith lost votes and Notley gained votes, but not enough to make a difference.
https://edmontonjournal.com/opinion/...ly-for-the-ndp