[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by opendoor

But what post-war Ukraine are we talking about joining NATO? One that gets back all its territory, pushing Russia to their own borders? Or the far more likely outcome (other than persistent war) where its territory is divided by a tenuous armistice line and Russia maintains control over a significant part of the country? I guess if a miracle happens and they get all their territory back and the war ends, then maybe joining NATO is a possibility. But that chances of that happening at this point are basically zero.

I'd expect some sort of security guarantee (that falls short of Article 5) to be a more likely outcome.

Is a split Ukraine that different than a split German. West Germany join mid 50s.

I am hopeful that Ukraine pushes back Ivan to their own soil.