Quote:
Originally Posted by butterfly
Yeah, it's interesting that the one you shared had a different perception of the game. You have to manipulate the chart to expected goals from Corsi (I don't really think Corsi is a great way of analyzing hockey), but it shows the game a lot more even than 74/26.
The fact that there are fairly wide ranges of analysis indicate that we don't understand well enough what causes goal suppression or creation with certainty. It doesn't mean the models are worthless. (Not directed at you, but the people who responded pedantically.)
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Yeah I think it's just like you said earlier about luck, it's kind of like with a coin you in theory have a 50/50 chance at both heads and tails but that only happens if you flip it an infinite amount of times. But nobody in reality does that so you always get some distortion.
Also the amount of variables to consider is always too much when you have something that deals with humans. Like what do you add to the equation when someone gets "hot" and scores at will etc. Large samples evens things out but not in seven games.