A spreadsheet is kinda required to really know the payback time ie. When total money saved>total money spent. It's highly dependent on the size of system, output of system, energy use, and what you think will happen to the price of electricity. You're right in worrying about the future with more utility scale solar perhaps forcing removal of incentives, but a home battery would make that worry irrelevant.
Here's my numbers, but keep in mind I pay for electricity differently in BC so the calculation is simpler. I also anticipate getting a heat pump, another EV and hybrid hot water tank at some point in the future so I can use a bigger system. I also anticipate our electricity costs will increase in BC. Currently, with BC Hydro we pay on a two month billing cycle and it's 9.59¢/KWh for the first 1350 KWh, then 14.22¢ after that which makes the calculation a bit tough. However, we don't pay all the different fees you do as the cost per kwh is inclusive of all of it. BC Hydro offers full net metering so my bill is simply input minutes output.
Cost of 10.9 KW system including panel upgrade and tax minus grant- $26,738
Current power bill /yr - $1550
Yearly power bill after install - $240/year
That's a significantly long payback (over 20 years) at current electricity prices. However, as I'm always going into the second tier of pricing, any additional load with heat pump or EVs is actually very expensive as it'll be @ 14.22¢/KWh. It also doesn't include any electricity price increases which is highly unlikely as we electrify things. It also will increase the resale value of my home, so it's not really money lost. With a 10 year interest free loan my payments will be $220 a month and my bill will be a little more than $100 a month cheaper. So in the end I will pay $100-120 more a month for ten years at all current costs, with the hedge that it will save me much more in the future
Last edited by Street Pharmacist; 06-07-2023 at 09:52 AM.
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