I agree with all of this. It sounds fine to say (as EE said) that the big traditional automakers can just catch up when the penetration gets to 50% ignores just how that is literally impossible.
First, it takes minimum 5 years for the big automakers to get a new electric vehicle to a decent production number. In 2017 there were 1M total electric vehicles sold. By 2022 (5 years later,) there were 10 million sold. That doesn't look to be slowing down. If the're 5 years behind, who's buying their cars? Even though they're dipping toes in now, the same trajectory has 50 million (probably well north of 50%) in another 5 years, and they won't be able to keep up with demand.
Second, Established ICE makers have existing commitments to hundreds of thousands of employees, parts supopliers, and property that won't be compatible with buildingelectric vehicles. They can'tr simply just end those commitments, so it's naturally going to take longer. Look at what's happening to VW in Germany (
https://electrek.co/2021/11/04/vw-ce...electric-fast/). It's difficult for a complex large company to just pivot. You're not replacing an engine, the entire production is completely different. Design, parts, manufacturing, sales, etc are all completely different. They need a longer lead timer and 5 years simply isn't enough.
Lastly, and this is the biggest one, there won't be enough batteries for everyone. Telsa brought the entire supply chain under their roof, though they still needed to sign additional battery supply agreements. Ford and GM have signed some supply agreements, but only really Ford has any real suppply in place and still not enough.Those who sign last will pay a lot more for the same batteries. Currently China owns or controls 80-90% of the entire supply chain for the batteries, though despite being very late both North America and Europe are trying to fix this. This will really affect operating margins and the difference in costs will not be a difference in quality but in logistics. It takes 2-4 years to build new mineral refining capacity, but it takes 8-10 years to build new mines. It's going to be tough to be the last one to trough