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Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist
In the end, are you suggesting that either the timeline for the OEMs to catch up is long enough, or just that it's not going to happen? Because there's ample evidence for them being too late to the party here. I suppose we could quibble about what success or failure looks like, but I would argue very few of the Top 8 auto makers in the world will still be in the top 8 within 10 years. Disruption is coming in a big way, you're just not seeing evidence of it in the dealerships in Calgary because it's probably one of the last places it'll hit.
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Not blind at all. You keep saying late to the party and I don't think you realize the party hasn't started. There's little doubt EV sales are growing rapidly but still represent less than 15% of all global sales. Even if legacy automakers were up to speed to build millions of EV's today they wouldn't sell many more than they already do because it still represents a small part of the overall pie. If we get to the point where 50% of all vehicles purchased worldwide are EV's and legacy automakers are still behind then you are on to something but we aren't there yet. I respect that you do your research and this are enthusiastic about the topic but like a lot of people you are guilty of accelerating timelines and making predictions based on reading a lot of hot take internet headlines. USA, Germany, France, Japan, etc have huge political power and will ensure their manufacturing markets are protected.
The landscape will be altered but I don't see it being this drastic change you prediction that it doesn't look good for OEM's. There will be challenges but most will adapt and some will have to accept lesser market shares as China will be a difficult market to crack but for example the Germans will always have their luxury niche. The Chinese can throw their hat in the luxury ring but they will find out just like the Americans and Japanese that rich and wealthy want the cachet of German luxury cars. The American brands will always be front and center with pickup trucks and large SUV's. I'm not bullish on Stellantis but the Jeep brand will go on one way or another. The China market is going to alter global sales but I certainly don't see a Chinese takeover in North America or Europe nor do I see Ford, GM, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, VAG, German Luxury brands going anywhere. The one positive of the pandemic is that automakers figured out that less sales can be more when it comes to profits. GM has already pulled out of all their money losing markets like Europe, Russia, India, Australia, etc and are better for it. So bottom line is that I don't disagree that the automotive landscape will change but a lot of the big players will be the same.