Quote:
Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist
In the end, are you suggesting that either the timeline for the OEMs to catch up is long enough, or just that it's not going to happen? Because there's ample evidence for them being too late to the party here. I suppose we could quibble about what success or failure looks like, but I would argue very few of the Top 8 auto makers in the world will still be in the top 8 within 10 years. Disruption is coming in a big way, you're just not seeing evidence of it in the dealerships in Calgary because it's probably one of the last places it'll hit.
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Yeah, I think traditional automakers are going to potentially be in trouble. Many of them can't even produce ICE cars at the rate they did 10 years ago, and now they're going to transition to EVs successfully?
Teslas have their issues, but the company can actually build enough to meet the demand and do it profitably. Not a single legacy car company has shown an ability to do either of those things, and it's not going to get easier. And Tesla has enough profit margin that they can cut prices a fair bit still if they want to undercut their non-Chinese competition. One of the benefits of being a newer company run by a union buster.
That said, I also wouldn't assume that things will continue to play out as they are now. Chances are one or both of these things are going to happen:
1) None of the targets for EV adoption pan out (basically ICEs remain dominant for the foreseeable future).
2) North America and European countries put huge tariffs on Chinese EVs to keep domestic manufacturers competitive.