[Street Pharmacist]

Tesla will continue to be the top selling EV outside of China for some time, but their market share will continue to shrink. The reason Tesla cannot fail big here is that the EV market is growing exponentially and OEMs simply aren't up to the task. Even their most aggressive plans to switch are all way behind brand new start ups in China. Lots of people won't want to buy Chinese make cars so that leaves Tesla and the small number of models the OEMs have prepared.

Prior to 2020, China had never cracked the top 20 in vehicle exports. By 2021, they were 17th by volume. Last year they came in second. This year they're the largest exporter of vehicles and their lead is growing fast. People can say all they want that they'll never drive a Chinese car, but then people said the same thing about Japanese cars before they became the largest exporter. The reality is Tesla has most of the "non Chinese" company market for itself because it's production capacity is just so much better than the OEMs because they're too late to the game.

The fsd is a red herring because almost all fsd subscriptions are to a bunch of tech nerds and not their average consumer anymore. It's the icing on their cake but they make enough on the cake you can scrape the icing off and they'll be fine. Other manufacturers now make cars as good or better than Tesla from a consumer satisfaction perspective, but they're losing money on them because they need to pour all their money into new production lines, R&D, and pension/severance. It's not looking good for most OEMs. Toyota is going to go from largest OEM to minor player over the next ten to fifteen years because they've stomped their feet and sold their soul to hydrogen