Quote:
Originally Posted by octothorp
Since they aren't published on 338canada, I did a quick rundown of the most recent Calgary polling of every pollster going back to the beginning of May (except Mainstreet, who don't publish their regional data without a subscription). Leger is the only major pollster we haven't heard from yet this month... wouldn't be surprised to see something from them before the debate tomorrow:
Abacus: UCP +5
Angus Reid: NDP +3
Counsel Public Affairs: NDP +10
Ipsos: UCP +4
Janet Brown: UCP +12
Sovereign North: NDP +3
So yeah, ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ .
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The kind of results you might expect in a close race, I think. One issue is that some pollsters use Calgary CMA as a region and others are Calgary proper. And the spread might look large but the regional samples will also have a larger MOE because they are comparatively small (n=150 or so in the Abacus poll).
Don’t forget that Janet Brown also had a poll of just Calgary that she did for the CBC about 6 weeks ago — and that poll showed NDP +5. I think that falls outside of your date range, but it’s a data point that is out there.