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Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan
Based on topline margin Mainstreet’s last tracking poll (UCP +4) is actually closer to the last Leger numbers (NDP +2) than it is to Janet Brown. I don’t see them as “pretty much in line.”
To me the two that stand out are Abacus and Janet Brown. Everyone else is kind of within a standard deviation of one another.
One weird thing about the Janet Brown poll is it’s not even “pretty much in line” with Janet Brown. Her last poll showed the NDP ahead in Calgary by 5 points, in early April. She’s effectively saying that over the last 6 weeks, significant numbers of Calgarians watched Danielle Smith and thought “yes, I’d like more of that please.”
To me, that seems way less plausible than just saying “this is an outlier”, which is just a thing that happens sometimes and in no way a criticism of her poll or her methodology.
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I heard that Brown's isn't an unadjusted poll, they're modelled results based on polling. So probably include adjustments based on which party's supporters are most likely to actually vote etc., she thinks polls under-represent conservative voters.