Just to muddy the waters even further Counsel for Public Affairs will apparently release another new poll tomorrow which will show NDP +5.
https://twitter.com/Counselpa/status...17156096434186
Honestly, I have no idea. Every time we see another poll I imagine that just one more will finally make this picture look clear, and each new data point just muddies the water further.
But … one possible explanation is that the race remains close and both Janet Brown and Abacus are slight outliers—just in opposite directions. Differences between other pollsters’ numbers could all just be statistical variance within the MOE. In that scenario the race is either tied or maybe the UCP has a slight lead.
Other explanations probably work just as well. Maybe Abacus is wrong, and the UCP is headed for a landslide. . Maybe Janet Brown is wrong, and the NDP is leading by somewhere between 6-10%.
Pick your poison depending on the outcome you’re hoping for I guess.