Quote:
Originally Posted by MarchHare
Someone correct me if I'm wrong: shouldn't a province-wide poll that shows a tied result be good news for the NDP? We know the UCP will win ridings in rural Alberta by a 70-30 margin (or more), which is greater than the percentage the NDP will win ridings in their Edmonton stronghold. So if province-wide polls are showing a tie, that would indicate there will be a lot of 53-47 wins for the NDP in Calgary ridings, right?
In other words, it doesn't matter if the UCP makes their province-wide support look better by running up the score in Drumheller-Stettler and Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills if the NDP are able to eek out close wins in Calgary-Currie and Calgary-Varsity.
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Not quite that simple; while the UCP have a large margin in a lot of rural ridings, the margin is even bigger the other way in a lot of Edmonton ridings. Also I believe the population/riding is smaller in most of the rural ridings. Ultimately it won't be the popular vote percentage that matters, it is who wins in Calgary and the smaller cities.