Quote:
Originally Posted by Bring_Back_Shantz
The Alberta Party could very well draw votes away from the UCP.
I think (Fingers crossed/hope), that there is a bit of a shift.
NDP voters from 2019 don't change
AP voters from 2019 either stay with AP or shift NDP
UCP voters either stay with UCP or shift to AP
So I could see something like the UCP vote goes down, the AP vote stays the same, and the NDP vote goes up.
It would look like a shift from UCP to NDP, but it could be more of a slide to the left than a straight switch.
This is my hopeful outcome.
I'm a good example of this.
In 2019 I didn't like what I saw in the UCP so I volunteered quite heavily for the AP in 2019.
This year I've got an NDP sign on my lawn.
I'm hoping, at worst, there are quite a few UCP voters who are just 1 election cycle behind me.
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I think in general you're pretty much bang on the money as to what will happen: some UCP votes bleed to the AP (and NDP), AP votes bleed off to the NDP, and generally NDP voters from the last time 'round will still vote NDP. However, I think there will be a chunk of AP votes that the UCP siphon off, making things closer than the 44%—31%—23% split between Schweitzer, Clark and Janet Eremenko. I still think Chris Davis's UCP campaign is the one to beat at this point, just from a gut feel talking to neighbours. And the signage...
My early guess is AP support will plummet to 10ish%, with NDP and UCP each carving out about half the rest and finishing in a near-dead-heat either way.