Quote:
Originally Posted by timun
Anecdotal campaign signage sighted in Calgary-Elbow:
- Mount Royal/Elbow Park: 70% UCP, 25% NDP, 5% AP
- South Calgary: 50% NDP, 30% UCP, 20% AP
- Altadore: 45% NDP, 40% UCP, 15% AP
- North Glenmore Park: 45% UCP, 40% NDP, 15% AP
My gut feeling is it ends up similar to 2019: AP and NDP vote-splitting will give the UCP candidate a plurality of the vote. |
The Alberta Party could very well draw votes away from the UCP.
I think (Fingers crossed/hope), that there is a bit of a shift.
NDP voters from 2019 don't change
AP voters from 2019 either stay with AP or shift NDP
UCP voters either stay with UCP or shift to AP
So I could see something like the UCP vote goes down, the AP vote stays the same, and the NDP vote goes up.
It would look like a shift from UCP to NDP, but it could be more of a slide to the left than a straight switch.
This is my hopeful outcome.
I'm a good example of this.
In 2019 I didn't like what I saw in the UCP so I volunteered quite heavily for the AP in 2019.
This year I've got an NDP sign on my lawn.
I'm hoping, at worst, there are quite a few UCP voters who are just 1 election cycle behind me.