Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperMatt18
Maybe...maybe not.
2.7 points per 60 was his pace in Florida at 5v5 - so my point is that what you should expect for him on average.
From 2019-2022 with the Panthers his 2.7 point per 60 would have ranked him 8th in the NHL for players that played at least 2000 minutes. Tied with David Pastrnak, & Leon Draisaitl.
So while that's production may not look super impressive over a 30 game stretch with 18 points, over a longer period of time that type of 5v5 production does get you about that much money.
If we look at 2020-2023 only 7 forwards produce at a clip of over 2.7 points per 60 at 5v5 (minimum 2000 minutes played).
1) Marner
2) Matthews
3) Mackinnon
4) McDavid
5) Tkachuk
6) Robertson
7) Pastrnak
Outside of Robertson all of those players will make over $9.5M next year. And Even with his bad season Huberdeau ranks 20th in the NHL at 2.53 points per 60 at 5v5 over that span from 2020-2023.
So my point is more that there probably would be a team that would say... for three years he produced at a top 10 pace in the NHL at 5v5 (2.7 Points per 60)...then he had a terrible 50 game stretch after a shock trade with a new more demanding defensive coach (1.87 points per 60)...and then for the final 30 games of the season he was kind of back to his previous rate of production (2.7 points per 60).
So yeah a team looking for a buy low opportunity might go...yeah I'm going to bet he's the player he was for 204 games from 2019-2022 and then the final 30 games of 2023 and not the 50 games right after the trade.
This is the biggest thing to me too. I don't want him to throw away everything Sutter was preaching this year - some of the defensive improvements were needed for him and he did start to figure it out more in the final 30 games.
Hopefully he can produce even more with a bit more freedom, but keeps some of the strong defensive traits that Sutter would have been preaching.
|
But scoring had gone up hugely recently, so comparing 2023 numbers to 2020 numbers is counter productive..
At the end of the day, producing at a T-31 pace won't get you close to $10.5MM.
You can spin it any way you want to, but Hubby had a mid-50 point season. While there is reason to expect improvement for sure, he still needs to make those improvements next season. Ad how far will he improve to? 60 points? 65 points? Hopefully a minimum 70 points I would think is the low bar we'd want to hope for.