Quote:
Originally Posted by bax
Totally agree.
I’m not sure why some fans think that GM’s operate exclusively on the most recent season like it’s the be all end all.
GM’s take into account a lot of things. Coaching, environment, injuries, age, cap, analytics, etc.
Kopitar put up 52 points when he was 28 years old and bounced back to 92 points in his 29 year old season.
Toews went from 52 points to 81.
Pavelski went from 31 to 51 to 81 in his 35-37 year old seasons.
Players have up and down seasons all of the time. Judging them on their most recent season isn’t how you evaluate their value.
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Their are always outliers, but don't make the mistake that outliers prove the premise. You mention 3 exceptions. They are hundreds that prove the premise.
How would you like to be the team that traded for Toews after that 81 point season?
I agree that GM's look at a players entire career when making assessments.
But Huberdreau even at 80 points isn't worth a $10.5MM contract for the next 8 years when you factor in that 80 points will sure to decrease over the life of the contract. And that 80 points is likely a stretch even to the optimistic poster.
The chance of Huberdeau giving $84MM worth of value over the next 8 years is likely close to zero. We know it, and other GM's know it to. No one is lining up to take that on today. Could he have a bounce back year or two? of course. But his level of production is not heading in the right direction after his big season.