Quote:
Originally Posted by kirant
Just to throw some numbers into this:it's certainly a repeat of the previous study by Janet Brown, which put the UCP back by ~5%. It was estimated this lead should translate to 18 Calgary seats for 38 seats assuming an Edmonton sweep (pretty likely I think). Assuming they come up with the same result at a +7 lead, I think they're within striking distance as they would likely take a few close elections due outside of Calgary and Edmonton "proper". I count 5 easy ones due to the general shift in Alberta: regaining Sherwood Park and Banff-Kananaskis, taking Lethbridge's two seats instead of a split, holding St Albert. That's 43 seats.
Either way, it looks like the winner will have a very narrow majority if the current trends hold. |
It's amazing how many people have told me that they think we're going to have a minority government, when that is mathematically impossible without a third party winning seats. And there is no credible third party threat for any seats this election. There's an odd number of seats and only 2 parties - one of them will get more than half. It could be a bit messy with the speaker if it's exactly 44-43 one way, but I think that's relatively unlikely.