[kirant]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

Two new polls released today. ipsos has the UCP leading by 4 (48-44) but trailing slightly in Calgary.

https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/ucp-48-s...ad-44-over-ndp

Meanwhile Marc Henry’s ThinkHQ has the race tied at 44-44, but trailing by 7 points in “Calgary proper” (26 ridings).

https://thinkhq.ca/ndp-ucp-kick-off-...n-a-dead-heat/

I would interpret this data as more of the same: this is a very close race right now, and it really will come down to Calgary’s 26 seats and which party can win most of them.

Just to throw some numbers into this:it's certainly a repeat of the previous study by Janet Brown, which put the UCP back by ~5%. It was estimated this lead should translate to 18 Calgary seats for 38 seats assuming an Edmonton sweep (pretty likely I think). Assuming they come up with the same result at a +7 lead, I think they're within striking distance as they would likely take a few close elections due outside of Calgary and Edmonton "proper". I count 5 easy ones due to the general shift in Alberta: regaining Sherwood Park and Banff-Kananaskis, taking Lethbridge's two seats instead of a split, holding St Albert. That's 43 seats.


Either way, it looks like the winner will have a very narrow majority if the current trends hold.