Yoho, you might be interested to know that the same Innovative research poll that you suggested was good news for the UCP shows the ANDP leading by eight points in Calgary. If that’s true the election is going to be very ugly for the UCP.
https://innovativeresearch.ca/wp-con...SE-VERSION.pdf
Luckily it’s an online panel poll and not methodologically comparable to the other surveys available, plus that’s a subsample—so feel free to now distance yourself from this data having previously said it was great for your team.
In all seriousness the data in aggregate suggests to me that this is going to be a close race. I don’t want to get too bold with predictions beyond that as there’s always the risk of being hilariously wrong about this sort of thing if you prognosticate too much too soon.