Quote:
Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan
Once again, you’re curiously selective with the polling data that you share.
The Innovative poll is April 19th and does not show much change from its March poll which had the NDP ahead by 1%. That’s likely just noise, and it confirms what we all likely already know: this election is going to be very close from a popular vote standpoint.
Meanwhile, though, other numbers are being released too—Abacus has a poll dated today that shows the race tied, and Oracle has one from the same date as the one you posted that has the NDP up by 2%. I can only assume you didn’t know about those or presumably you would have posted them too.
And on balance, ALL of this data just confirms—again—that the election is a dead heat from a popular vote perspective and will be very close—as long as the UCP vote doesn’t crumble any further.
Under the top lines, the data contains some really dire news for the UCP. The UCP’s numbers are down by double digits from where it was in the last election and likely is going to suffer a double digit seat drop too under its best case scenario.
In the Abacus poll, just 60% of voters who voted for the UCP in the last election intend to vote for the UCP again. 60%! That’s awful — and reflects a party that has lost the trust of a huge chunk of its own base.
But sure, the UCP just needs to “nail down the Slava swing state.” That’s definitely a reasonable interpretation of the polling data.
Don’t change a thing, it’s going great.
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Exactly. Stay the course Danielle, trust your gut, lean into your hunches, full steam ahead, make sure you verbalize all those million dollar ideas!