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Iowa_Flames_Fan · 04-20-2023, 10:53 AM

It’s going to be interesting for sure. The latest poll that I’m aware of is from Leger, and showed NDP +3 province wide but a dead heat (44-44) in Calgary.

https://legermarketing.wpenginepower...ch-29-2023.pdf

I think Leger is a pretty decent pollster, but… those numbers are now pretty old—they were in the field March 24-27. I haven’t seen anything more recent.

But these would seem to confirm that Calgary is going to be the battleground, with the ANDP doing well in Edmonton and grabbing a couple of seats elsewhere and the UCP mostly sweeping rural areas. Calgary, especially in the suburbs, is going to be where this election is won or lost.

EDIT TO ADD: care should be taken in reading too much into “sub groups” within polling samples, as they are smaller sample sizes which accordingly have more potential error. That can lead to improbable oddities—like the linked poll which has the UCP winning female voters 46-43 but losing male voters 50-42. So just take those subsample data with a bit of a grain of salt.

04-20-2023, 10:53 AM	#8873
Iowa_Flames_Fan Referee Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Over the hill Exp:	It’s going to be interesting for sure. The latest poll that I’m aware of is from Leger, and showed NDP +3 province wide but a dead heat (44-44) in Calgary. https://legermarketing.wpenginepower...ch-29-2023.pdf I think Leger is a pretty decent pollster, but… those numbers are now pretty old—they were in the field March 24-27. I haven’t seen anything more recent. But these would seem to confirm that Calgary is going to be the battleground, with the ANDP doing well in Edmonton and grabbing a couple of seats elsewhere and the UCP mostly sweeping rural areas. Calgary, especially in the suburbs, is going to be where this election is won or lost. EDIT TO ADD: care should be taken in reading too much into “sub groups” within polling samples, as they are smaller sample sizes which accordingly have more potential error. That can lead to improbable oddities—like the linked poll which has the UCP winning female voters 46-43 but losing male voters 50-42. So just take those subsample data with a bit of a grain of salt. Last edited by Iowa_Flames_Fan; 04-20-2023 at 10:56 AM.