Quote:
Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist
I think the disparity in data collection for all the different sites makes the argument tricky too. Naturalstattrick uses location and NHL event data only. That means that a high danger scoring chance is anything from the home plate area, out slightly out if it happened right after a neutral zone event (rush chance) or other shot (rebound).
Micro stat tracking can break that further out to include passes and other movement. It's telling that Calgary was 31st for cross ice passes. That would likely be a Darryl issue that could easily be solved.
But yeah, it's not just a bunch of perimeter shots, that is easily disproven. I do think though, that there's very little creativity and predictable means savable
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Natural stat trick is a scoring chance attempt on anything from the slot and a high danger shot attempt in the slot (home plate) on a pass, deflection or rebound.
Both are assigned likelihood of a goal and tabulated to expected goals.
If you're high in scoring attempts but less so in high danger I do think your best shots are too predictable.
But being top 15 in high danger suggests they're still getting some dangerous looks.
I think the Flames high volume strategy is creating a lift to the expected goals that needs to be adjusted, but I'd doubt that adjustment moves them from 5th to 32nd.