https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/16/world...ntl/index.html
A really interesting breakdown of the Intel documents that were leaked.
Quote:
Russian brigades mauled
Several of the documents, which appear to date largely from February and March, tend to confirm that Russia has committed the vast majority of its army battalions to its war on in Ukraine. Despite the mobilization last autumn, which potentially added 300,000 soldiers to the Russian ranks, a significant minority of these battalions are described as “combat ineffective” – short of men and equipment.
One document says that 527 out of 544 available Russian battalions are committed to the operation, and 474 are already inside Ukraine. A substantial number are deployed in the south of the country – with an estimated 23,000 personnel in Zaporizhzhia and another 15,000 in Kherson. That suggests the Russians expect any Ukrainian offensive to target that region.
But in Donetsk, for example, 19 out of 91 battalions were adjudged as “combat ineffective.”
Russia still has vast inventories of hardware, but the documents suggest that some of the best has already been lost, and older, less reliable armor is being dusted off. One says that Russia continued to fall behind stated goals for replenishing equipment and personnel, and was incorporating “older, less accurate munitions systems.”
The documents provide some startling estimates, suggesting that at one point early this year Russia had 419 tanks in theater, but had lost a staggering 2,048 during the conflict. They also suggest that at that time, Ukraine had more armored personnel carriers (APCs) and fighting vehicles in the field than did Russia.
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It paints a picture of both militaries heading towards a stalemate, although Ukraine seems to be faring better in terms of land equipment and forces.
I really wonder what could be done realistically to give Ukraine an edge. A boat load of HIMARS ammo, combine with some new anti-air systems? I so want Ukraine to not lose its momentum.