I think we'll first see AI taking over call centre and online chat customer service. Customers may actually end up preferring to deal with an AI agent. I know they often have scripted chat bots these days, but they typically suck. I imagine these actually account for a lot of low level, low education required employment. This will also happen very rapidly as options become available, as it will mean massive cost savings. Elimination of jobs for the lower educated that have low barriers to entry is going to have a pretty massive effect on employment numbers.
I suspect this will sound a warning bell for many other industries, and governments will get off their butts and figure out how to deal with this. It makes me think perhaps the best solution early on would be to tax companies heavily for this type of automation, such that they can still save some money, but much of the savings goes to a form of UBI, not to profits. There will be a lot of resistance to this, obviously, but I jut don't see a way around it. And these are not 20 year out problems, this is all less than 5 years away.
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