Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan02
No not really, to Slavas point, it was just more lumpy. If your timing was terrible then yes you might feel that way despite the data not supporting it. Full disclosure I got sucked into the mania in 2007-8 and bought in at the peak as well. I was basically down/flat in value for 13 years before spiking the last couple of years.
From the CREA data set, in Q1 2000 the average apartment sale price was around 115,000, matching inflation values it should now be around 190,000 today, however it's now around 250,000.
If you agree with my postulate that for the betterment of society we should preserve the ability of future generations to be able to afford housing, then to return to the 2000 levels of affordability we'd need another 15 years of zero appreciation in the price of apartments coupled with 2% inflation to match the 2000 affordability levels.
The idea that housing is an investment that should appreciate needs to be broken and reversed. Why because any value higher then inflation over the long run ends up with housing being impossibly unaffordable.
Even Slavas 4.1% number vs a 2% inflation means every single generation(20 years) housing is 50% more expensive in real dollars then the previous generation. Something eventually has to break and the longer it goes without breaking the worse it will be when it does.
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A few points:
1. We might be seeing 30+% inflation, total over the last few years. This is going to offset a large portion of the nominal increase in value. Of course fixed wage earners aren't going to benefit from this.
2. With a quickly growing population and the land supply remaining more or less flat, we are likely seeing a quick decrease in the quality of housing available to future generations.
Providing future generations with housing of the same quality and price simply is not possible with the current conditions.
Housing will continue to be seen as a good investment as long as their is a shortage of supply.